Last year the CIA took a look through its crystal ball and made a series of predictions in a report, "Global Trends 2015," about what the world would be like in 15 years. The CIA examined demographic trends, economic trends and technological trends and their effect on governments, international stability and people's lives.

The CIA also examined the phenomenon of terrorism and concluded: "States with poor governance; ethnic, cultural or religious tensions; weak economies; and porous borders will be prime breeding grounds for terrorism. ... Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties."

The CIA got it right, but left something out: the status of women. My grandmother, Margaret Sanger, said more than a half century ago that the issues of world population, world peace and the status of women were inextricably interwoven and that world stability could not be achieved without improving the status of the world's women.

I believe that we who support reproductive rights and improving the status of women are indispensable in coming up with a solution to whatever caused the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11.

Although the cause of reproductive rights isn't directed toward alleviating ancient ethnic or religious hatreds, nor toward alleviating the inequities caused by globalization, nor toward dealing with the clash of civilizations, all of which in one form or another have been cited as the underlying causes of the Sept. 11 attacks, our mission deals with all of these.

What we demand is respect for the fundamental humanity of every person, especially women, and for their right to decide whether and when to have children. And we believe that these principles, if followed, can help to foster respect for everyone's involvement in civic life, in the economy, and in the government. When we eliminate exclusion and disenfranchisement in a country, we can go a long way toward building communities based on common values and building nations governed by the consent of all the people.

On the other hand, if we don't respect women and girls in society and under the law, the danger is the primacy of anti-social men in positions of power. And if we don't provide options for family planning to both women and men, the danger is unsustainable population growth that leads to unemployment, poverty and, ultimately, desperation.

This has taken on a new urgency since Sept. 11. The New York Times quoted one Middle East expert last week: "Angry young men, many of them unemployed, have seized the public arena from Algeria to South Asia and filled it with hate, intolerance and the abuse of women." How does this happen?

In some Middle Eastern societies, men and women are frequently segregated, women are veiled and schooled separately (if at all) and chaperoned. Polygamy is common, and often it is only the wealthy, high-status males who get multiple wives. (Bin Laden is reported to have four.) Daughters are often sold to their future husband's family, yet poor or unemployed males cannot afford the dowry.

Furthermore, there are more men than women in many Middle Eastern countries. This is the opposite of the norm in developed countries where there are more women than men. Most countries begin with a sex ratio at birth of about 105; that is, there are 5% more boys born than girls. But women soon become the majority sex in most countries because males tend to engage in higher-risk activities and thus die earlier.

But not in the Middle East. It appears that girls die before boys in the Middle East because better nutrition and health care are allocated to boys to ensure their survival. The United Nations estimates that the sex ratio worldwide is 102 men per 100 women. The ratio peaks at 115 men per 100 women in Saudi Arabia, but it is also above-average in Libya (108), Afghanistan (107), Pakistan (106) and Iran (105).

Exacerbating this inequality are the extremely high birth rates that put pressure on the economy. Whereas the total fertility rate, or average number of children per woman, worldwide is 2.8, it is almost or more than double that figure in Iraq (5.2), Pakistan (5.4), Saudi Arabia (6.1) and Afghanistan (6.9). With unsustainable birth rates, the economies of these countries also have high unemployment rates. The Wall Street Journal last week estimated that the unemployment rate in Saudi Arabia was 14% and the per capita income had fallen from $28,000 in the 1980s to $8,000 last year.

I believe that these realities--of high birth rates, sex imbalances, unemployment, poverty, and a culture that devalues women and also men--that exist throughout much of the Middle East are a significant factor in encouraging young men to become disaffected with their lives and leading many of them to desperate measures.

My grandmother was more prescient than she knew when she said that the issues of world population, the status of women and world peace are interwoven. Fortunately, most governments worldwide, including those in many Middle Eastern countries, agree with this worldview, as they indicated by signing the Program of Action put forth at the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo in 1994. These nations all agreed that every country has to address the status of its women, provide sustainable development, ensure childbearing by choice, provide health care and education to all, and involve all men and women in the processes put in place to make this happen.

Alex Sanger
12/20/01